Episode #323: Coronavirus, real estate investors and the stock market… or, how real estate investors are making absolute jackasses of themselves during a very bad time. I’m Bryan Ellis. This is Episode #323 of Self-Directed Investor Talk.
Hello, self-directed investors, all across the fruited plane. Welcome to the show of record for savvy self-directed investors like you where in each episode, I help you to find, understand and profit from exceptional alternative investment opportunities.
Today, my friends, I share with you my expectations about the REALITY of the coronavirus and how I see it affecting our economy and more importantly my and your investments. But first, a quick word about a clear way to identify some people who, at their very core, are clearly complete jackasses.
Now, note that this isn’t a test for ALL jackasses, just some of them. But here we go:
You probably know that, due to Coronoavirus fears, the stock market has taken a MASSIVE dive in the last two weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by over 15%… it’s been just absolutely brutal. I’ll tell you when that ends in just a minute, but that’s a different story.
So back to identifying jackasses: If you see a real estate investor post something on Faceobok or elsewhere that basically says: “Hey, all you stock market investors, you’re really taking it on the chin now, aren’t you? I’ll bet you wish you had gotten into real estate instead of stocks now!”
When you see something like that, what you’re seeing is a jackass. Someone who is childish, pathetic and heartless. Such a person, regardless of whether they’re successful in real estate, deserves to be ostracized and ridiculed for their short-sighted and juvenile attitude.
So to all the jackass people out there, remember: You’ll get yours. I don’t wish it on anybody, but nobody bats 1.000. Where financial market losses are concerned, your attitude should always be: There but for the grace of God go I.”
Now, as for the Coronavirus, the stock market and the economy?
Totally overblown. I see stocks beginning to recover today, frankly. Is it a serious thing? Yes… but almost entirely for psychological reasons… because the media has scared people so badly that there’s a lot of irrationality out there.
Remember this: We all keep hearing that 2% of the people who get this disease die from it, compared to the flu, which kills only 0.1% of the people who get it.
That would be disturbing, for sure. BUT there are 3 facts you should know.
Fact #1: The actual mortality rate in China, according to a report from China published in the New England Journal of medicine 3 days ago, is much lower, at only 1.4%. That’s a significant difference.
Fact #2: The mortality rate is almost certainly much lower than that because most of the cases of it are so mild that they are never caught or reported. That’s not my opinion… but the opinion of Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases… the one guy who everybody agrees is THE authority on these matters here in the U.S.
And finally, Fact #3: Whatever the mortality rate, that’s the mortality rate in CHINA… not in America. CHINA! That’s a country that literally is happy to execute their citizens as a matter of convenience… an evil regime that exists to protect the Xi Xinping and the Communist Party as it’s highest priority… a place where the health of the citizenry is the last thing they care about.
So how you SHOULD think about this is as follow: Even in China, the death rate of coronavirus is, at worst, 1.4%. We don’t really know how many people are killed by the flu in China. I’ll bet it’s quite comparable.
Does that mean Coronavirus isn’t serious? Nope. Be careful, of course. But what it does mean is that while it is highly contagious, it’s more likely to be a pain in the rear rather than an issue of fatality.
As for the effect of Coronavirus on stocks?
I think we saw the bottom on Friday. I wouldn’t bet the farm on it… but I’d be willing to bet a barn door or two.
By the way… if you’re looking for an astoundingly powerful tax break that happens to be coupled with an investment offering a potentially exceptionally high yield… well, drop a note to me at [email protected] and I’ll fill you in. This is crazy good stuff, folks.
Well my friends, that’s all for now… invest wisely today, and live well forever!